Supply and Demand, The Real Estate Frenzy, Again!


Here in Northern Colorado, we are experiencing rapid growth and a limited supply of inventory on the market. Both in the sales and rental sectors combined. This phenomenon is causing home and rental prices to go up in unrealistic and unsustainable levels. This brings up memories of watching the melt down which I tracked starting in Florida the summer of 2005 that moved west over the next three years. Tracking some home sales in the last 12 months, I found one property which was sold in June 2015 for 500K and is now under contract at just shy of 550K. A nine month increase of 10%, if it sells at that price point (stay tuned). Another property I showed on Friday, which needs extensive work with a market value increase of 34% in three years based on comparable properties leaves me scratching my head. I can truly understand the “Strike while the iron is hot” mentality, but when is enough, enough? In epidemic proportions, we are looking at another year similar, if not more insane than the last two and a half years. These cycles of market fluctuations seem to have peaks and valleys with tighter sine curves anymore. This could be discussed in an entirely separate topic on how appraisals are calculated, (which I see as an area that still needs a great deal of improvement and refinement). Appraisers are having a nightmare of a time trying to calculate these rapidly rising home values. With the new national laws that went into effect in October makes markets like this a challenge. Northern Colorado, in essence has become the “Field of Dreams”, with one small deviation. If you write about it, they will come. This starting back in 2006 with Money Magazine. And come they have! Another reason I believe people are flocking in droves to Colorado is the legalization of pot. I was at the State of the City address in Fort Collins last week. The audience was told, “The future looks bright”. I also believe it does. It’s just gauging where we will level off and how much of a market correction there will be once supply and demand level out. There is no crystal ball, but I believe we are around 6 years behind this growth curve. Coming up with solutions I and should be priority one for everyone in this business. Creating win/win situations is by far more desirable that win/loose. Those come back and bite us all in the end.